Fresh formal job creation cooled for the second consecutive month to decline to a six-month low in September, signalling a downturn in the labour markets this financial year. The number of new monthly subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) declined by 6.45 per cent to 891,583 in September from 953,092 in August, shows the latest payroll data released by the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). Besides, the net payroll additions -- calculated by taking into account the number of new subscribers, the number of exits, and the return of old subscribers -- increased by 14.9 per cent to 1.72 million in September from 1.49 million in August.
The Indian economy is likely to record a 7.4 per cent growth rate in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009 as well as in the entire fiscal, a report by an economic think-tank on the economy, said.
The Indian economy would continue to clock a robust over 9 per cent growth in FY 09, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its monthly report on Monday.
The country's economic growth in the second quarter this fiscal is expected to be slightly lower than in preceding two quarters due to a slowdown in industrial growth, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said on Monday. "We expect the Indian economy to have grown by 8.8 per cent in the September 2007 quarter. Although healthy, this growth is considerably lower than the 9.3 per cent growth in real gross domestic product clocked in the June 2007 quarter," CMIE said.
Indian regulators have identified certain groups as 'financial conglomerates' and they are being monitored closely for any systemic risks they may pose.
Titan Company, Axis Bank, NTPC, Tata Motors, ITC, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Bajaj Finance were the other laggards. Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Infosys and Larsen & Toubro were among the gainers.
India's real GDP is expected to grow at an impressive 9.5 per cent in FY'09, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its monthly review in Mumbai. The Indian economy is heading towards the fourth consecutive year of an over 9 per cent growth and like in the last five years, growth this year too was expected to be driven by capital investments happening in India, CMIE said.
'Retail investors have to stick to their asset allocation plans and continuously do portfolio reviews.'
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
India's unemployment rate witnessed a sharp decline to 6.57 per cent in January, the lowest since March 2021, as the country gradually recovers with easing of restrictions following a decline in Omicron cases, according to CMIE. While unemployment in urban India stood at 8.16 per cent in January, in rural areas it was the lowest at 5.84 per cent, as per data by independent think-tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). In December, the unemployment rate stood at 7.91 per cent, with urban at 9.30 per cent and rural at 7.28 per cent, it added.
India is trying hard to erase Indonesia's wariness about New Delhi, building security cooperation in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. If Indonesia decides to buy the Brahmos missile, it would further strengthen relations between the world's most populous nation and the most populous Islamic country.
Unemployment rate in the country has zoomed to a high of 8.3 per cent in December, the highest in 2022, according to data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The unemployment rate during November was at 8 per cent, while in September it was the lowest at 6.43 per cent and was at the second highest level during the year at 8.28 per cent in August, the CMIE data stated. While the urban unemployment rate was at 10 per cent during the last month of 2022, rural joblessness stood at 7.5 per cent during December.
India's unemployment rate surged to a one-year high of 8.3 per cent in August as employment sequentially fell by 2 million to 394.6 million, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). During July, the unemployment rate was at 6.8 per cent and the employment was 397 million, the CMIE data added. "The urban unemployment rate is usually higher at about 8 per cent than the rural unemployment rate, which is usually around 7 per cent.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
Despite concerns over the progress of monsoon, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Thursday said the Indian economy would grow at 6.3 per cent in 2004-05.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has lowered its growth forecast to 6 per cent, from 6.2 per cent projected earlier, for this fiscal, owing to the delay in recovery in industrial sector and the fall in mining, manufacturing and construction segments.
Gross fiscal deficit of the central government during 2002-03 is likely to be higher at Rs 1,52,300 crore (Rs 1,523 billion) as against the budgeted amount of Rs 1,35,524 crore (Rs 1,355.24 billion), according to CMIE.
Gold price outlook 2025: Gold prices that have climbed over 30 per cent so far in 2024 to Rs 7,300 per gram in the Indian markets (up 28 per cent in dollar terms till November-end), are set for their best calendar year performance in 10 years, suggests a recent report by World Gold Council (WGC). However, this stellar run, analysts believe, may not carry through till the end of 2025 in the backdrop of economic and geopolitical headwinds.
"This has been powered by a rebound in the agricultural sector following the drought in 2009-10, and a sharp pick-up in private consumption and gross fixed capital formation," CMIE said.
Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.4 per cent in 2003-04 and the next year is also likely to be good for the country, according to a top official of Centre for Monitoring Economy.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday pegged the growth of Indian economy at 7.5% for the first quarter of 2004-05 and that for the entire next fiscal at 6.3%.
'If businesses are focused on de-leveraging, they can hardly be investing. This is the price extracted by investment mistakes during UPA rule, and should have been foreseen. 'But Modi-I must share the blame, for muted reform of the financial sector, partisan policy in telecom, the harm done to exports by an over-priced rupee, and so on,' says T N Ninan.
Deloitte India on Friday said it estimates India's GDP growth at 6.6 per cent in the current fiscal helped by consumption expenditure, exports rebound and capital flows. In its India's economic outlook report, Deloitte said the rapid growth of the middle-income class has led to rising purchasing power and even created demand for premium luxury products and services. With the expectation that the number of middle-to-high-income segments will be one in two households by 2030/31, up from one in four currently, we believe this trend will likely become further amplified, driving overall private consumer expenditure growth, it said.
The outlook cut is based on a weak premise since the economy is expected to rebound this fiscal but a wake-up call was needed.
Claims of a spike in poverty and inequality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic are patently false as such claims are based on uncomparable different surveys, according to a paper co-authored by eminent economist Arvind Panagariya. The paper also noted that inequality fell in the country during Covid years, both in rural and urban areas as well as nationally. Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former vice chairman of NITI Aayog and Vishal More of Intelink Advisors, New Delhi have co-authored a detailed paper 'Poverty and Inequality in India: Before and After Covid-19'.
'While investors need to be prepared for making some losses, they should not lose big money chasing euphoria amid fear of missing out.'
India's GDP is expected to grow at 9.2 per cent in FY11 on the back of spurt in economic activities, Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review.
India's trade ties with Israel have only strengthened in the years after 2019. The total value of trade rose to $10.5 billion on a rolling four-quarter basis in June 2023 from $5.5 billion in the same month in 2019, shows a Business Standard analysis of data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). A rolling four-quarter number provides a comparable figure across different time periods.
The finance ministry expects a broad-based moderation in inflationary pressures on the back of an anticipated reduction in food prices as a result of the uptick in summer sowing. The retail inflation rate remained stubbornly clung to the 5 per cent mark in seven of the past eight months. "Core inflation is trending downwards, indicating a broad-based moderation in price pressures... Driven by strong domestic growth and benign global commodity prices, core inflation is declining continuously.
India's economy is likely to grow at 5.8 per cent in the current fiscal as against an earlier projection of 6.6 per cent, a leading economic think-tank said in its latest report.
Domestic demand for goods and services in the country is likely to increase in FY'10 on account of a possible sharp decline in commodity prices globally and reduction in prices of branded goods, an economic think-tank has said. Most of the demand-related problems, which the industry faced following the worsening of the global liquidity crisis in September 2008, were temporary in nature, the report said.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
Fresh formal job creation declined sequentially for a third straight month in February to fall to a 21-month low, signaling pressure in the employment market. These are the findings from the latest payroll data released by the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) on Thursday. The number of new monthly subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) declined 10 per cent sequentially to 738,052 in February from 819,659 in January.
The recent government decision to restrict supply of subsidised cooking gas cylinders to six per year to each household will see consumption for fuel decline to 4.1 per cent in second half of the fiscal, a report by think-tank CMIE said.
Driven by an estimated 8.4 per cent growth in the fourth quarter, the economy is expected to grow by 7.1 per cent in the just-concluded fiscal and by a robust 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, the leading economic think-tank CMIE has said.
With economic growth slowing to a six-year low, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath says the government should undertake structural reforms such as bank clean-up and labour reforms to address the slowdown in domestic demand. She rooted for government policies focusing on managing a slowdown in domestic demand, and on boosting productivity growth and supporting employment creation in the medium term.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has lowered its automobile production forecast by a percentage point to 9.6 per cent for this fiscal on account of a persistent higher interest rate regime, hike in taxes and the resultant increase in vehicle prices.
India's unemployment rose to a three-month high in March to 7.8 per cent as the country's labour markets deteriorated, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Unemployment rate in the country surged in December 2022 to 8.30 per cent but declined in January to 7.14 per cent. It edged up again in February to 7.45 per cent, the CMIE data released on Saturday showed. During March, the unemployment rate in urban areas was at 8.4 per cent while in the rural areas it was at 7.5 per cent.
Even after the government data showed a sharp fall in FY12 growth numbers and the April factory output data at a poor 0.1 per cent, a leading economic think tank on Thursday said it expects a revival in fortune and pegged GDP growth for the current fiscal at 7.3 per cent.
