'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
India's real GDP is expected to grow at an impressive 9.5 per cent in FY'09, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its monthly review in Mumbai. The Indian economy is heading towards the fourth consecutive year of an over 9 per cent growth and like in the last five years, growth this year too was expected to be driven by capital investments happening in India, CMIE said.
Claims of a spike in poverty and inequality in India during the Covid-19 pandemic are patently false as such claims are based on uncomparable different surveys, according to a paper co-authored by eminent economist Arvind Panagariya. The paper also noted that inequality fell in the country during Covid years, both in rural and urban areas as well as nationally. Panagariya, Columbia University Professor and former vice chairman of NITI Aayog and Vishal More of Intelink Advisors, New Delhi have co-authored a detailed paper 'Poverty and Inequality in India: Before and After Covid-19'.
India's trade ties with Israel have only strengthened in the years after 2019. The total value of trade rose to $10.5 billion on a rolling four-quarter basis in June 2023 from $5.5 billion in the same month in 2019, shows a Business Standard analysis of data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). A rolling four-quarter number provides a comparable figure across different time periods.
Despite concerns over the progress of monsoon, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Thursday said the Indian economy would grow at 6.3 per cent in 2004-05.
Fresh formal job creation declined sequentially for a third straight month in February to fall to a 21-month low, signaling pressure in the employment market. These are the findings from the latest payroll data released by the Employee Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) on Thursday. The number of new monthly subscribers under the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) declined 10 per cent sequentially to 738,052 in February from 819,659 in January.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has lowered its growth forecast to 6 per cent, from 6.2 per cent projected earlier, for this fiscal, owing to the delay in recovery in industrial sector and the fall in mining, manufacturing and construction segments.
"This has been powered by a rebound in the agricultural sector following the drought in 2009-10, and a sharp pick-up in private consumption and gross fixed capital formation," CMIE said.
Gross fiscal deficit of the central government during 2002-03 is likely to be higher at Rs 1,52,300 crore (Rs 1,523 billion) as against the budgeted amount of Rs 1,35,524 crore (Rs 1,355.24 billion), according to CMIE.
'If businesses are focused on de-leveraging, they can hardly be investing. This is the price extracted by investment mistakes during UPA rule, and should have been foreseen. 'But Modi-I must share the blame, for muted reform of the financial sector, partisan policy in telecom, the harm done to exports by an over-priced rupee, and so on,' says T N Ninan.
India's unemployment rose to a three-month high in March to 7.8 per cent as the country's labour markets deteriorated, according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). Unemployment rate in the country surged in December 2022 to 8.30 per cent but declined in January to 7.14 per cent. It edged up again in February to 7.45 per cent, the CMIE data released on Saturday showed. During March, the unemployment rate in urban areas was at 8.4 per cent while in the rural areas it was at 7.5 per cent.
Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.4 per cent in 2003-04 and the next year is also likely to be good for the country, according to a top official of Centre for Monitoring Economy.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday pegged the growth of Indian economy at 7.5% for the first quarter of 2004-05 and that for the entire next fiscal at 6.3%.
The outlook cut is based on a weak premise since the economy is expected to rebound this fiscal but a wake-up call was needed.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
The share of foreign companies in private sector investments, directed towards building new factories and other facilities, has declined over the past six months. A mix of large domestic announcements and relatively lower growth in foreign capital expenditure (capex) plans have played a role, although foreign investments remain near record levels. The share of foreign companies in the overall private sector investments over the four quarters ended June 2023 has dipped to 14.9 per cent, as shown by a Business Standard analysis of data from the project tracker Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
'We operate in 16 countries already, and therefore adding the UK to it, and beginning a chapter in the European continent is the next step.'
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
India's GDP is expected to grow at 9.2 per cent in FY11 on the back of spurt in economic activities, Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in its monthly review.
Asia's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, signed off an address to employees last week by assuring them that 2024 would be better than 2023 for both Reliance Industries and India. Ambani isn't an exception. Promoters and their representatives from several other conglomerates have expressed similar optimism.
India's economy is likely to grow at 5.8 per cent in the current fiscal as against an earlier projection of 6.6 per cent, a leading economic think-tank said in its latest report.
The state's joblessness is three times higher than the national average of 7.8 per cent.
New investment projects announced in the manufacturing sector declined in the three months ended June 2023. The value of new projects was lower than in the March quarter, as well as the year-ago period, shows data from project tracker the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The new project announcements worth around Rs 85,000 crore in the manufacturing segment in June were a 48 per cent decline from the Rs 1.6 trillion in March and a 66 per cent decline from the Rs 2.5 trillion seen in June 2022.
Domestic demand for goods and services in the country is likely to increase in FY'10 on account of a possible sharp decline in commodity prices globally and reduction in prices of branded goods, an economic think-tank has said. Most of the demand-related problems, which the industry faced following the worsening of the global liquidity crisis in September 2008, were temporary in nature, the report said.
With economic growth slowing to a six-year low, IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath says the government should undertake structural reforms such as bank clean-up and labour reforms to address the slowdown in domestic demand. She rooted for government policies focusing on managing a slowdown in domestic demand, and on boosting productivity growth and supporting employment creation in the medium term.
The recent government decision to restrict supply of subsidised cooking gas cylinders to six per year to each household will see consumption for fuel decline to 4.1 per cent in second half of the fiscal, a report by think-tank CMIE said.
Driven by an estimated 8.4 per cent growth in the fourth quarter, the economy is expected to grow by 7.1 per cent in the just-concluded fiscal and by a robust 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, the leading economic think-tank CMIE has said.
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has lowered its automobile production forecast by a percentage point to 9.6 per cent for this fiscal on account of a persistent higher interest rate regime, hike in taxes and the resultant increase in vehicle prices.
Even after the government data showed a sharp fall in FY12 growth numbers and the April factory output data at a poor 0.1 per cent, a leading economic think tank on Thursday said it expects a revival in fortune and pegged GDP growth for the current fiscal at 7.3 per cent.
The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) will engage stakeholders in the e-commerce space to establish standards with the objective of self-regulation, said its deputy director Parul Gupta at the Internet Commerce Summit 2022 in Bengaluru. "Standardisation will allow parties to transact qualified commodities and services at any location and time," said Gupta. BIS recently released standards for e-commerce players, travel portals, and food delivery platforms that publish consumer reviews online, as part of the government's efforts to crack down on fake reviews, said Gupta.
'The risk is in not being invested and missing out on an upmove.'
'Congress leaders who are making strategy for the Congress to win elections have not even won a class monitor elections.' 'When you have not contested school monitor elections, what will you know about the ground reality?'
CMIE expects the growth rate to climb slowly from around 6 per cent in the first-half to about 8 per cent in the second-half of FY 10.
The biggest deal was clinched during April-October 2010, raked in a whopping Rs 39,656 crore, paling the Rs 11546.6 crore deal struck in the year ago period.
Rising rupee and higher base have decelerated Indian companies' topline growth to 15.1 per cent for the quarter ended September 2007, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its monthly review in Mumbai. The IT sector was stung by the rising rupee, while the slow down in the steel sector was purely on account of a higher base coupled with a less than 7 per cent increase in steel prices, the think tank added.
Container prices have shot up by up to 300 per cent in the past one month owing to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran following the former's attack on Hamas, causing shortages and pushing consumer durables companies to increase prices. Companies have planned increases but some are yet to decide on the extent of the increase.
Four-nation grouping Quad on Tuesday launched a major new initiative for the Indo-Pacific that allows the partner countries to fully monitor the waters on their shores and help ensure peace and stability in the region, a move that comes amid China's increasingly intimidatory behaviour.
Corporate India's sales and profitability are expected to improve in FY 10, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said in its monthly review.
India has the best hiring outlook globally, second only to Brazil, with 54 per cent of companies surveyed planning to hire in the December quarter as against 51 per cent in the September quarter, according to a report by global staffing firm ManpowerGroup. The report titled "ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey" showed that India has the strongest net employment outlook for the December quarter in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by China (46 per cent), and Australia (38 per cent). The global net employment outlook in the December quarter would stand at 30 per cent, down by three percentage points from the June-September quarter, yet six percentage points higher than the same period last year, the staffing firm said.
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